Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
